2027 Social Security COLA Forecast: Latest Expert Predictions

Current 2027 COLA Predictions

The 2027 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) will be based on the change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from Q3 2025 to Q3 2026. While the official announcement won't come until mid-October 2026, several leading analysts have released their projections.

*Based on the average retired worker benefit of $2,024.77/month in 2026.

Why Predictions Vary

COLA predictions differ because analysts use different assumptions about future inflation. Key factors driving uncertainty in 2027 include:

• •Energy prices: Oil price volatility due to geopolitical tensions continues to affect the CPI-W. Higher energy costs push the COLA estimate upward.
• •Food costs: Grocery inflation has moderated from 2023 peaks but remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
• •Housing: Shelter costs, the largest CPI-W component, continue to show elevated year-over-year increases.
• •Healthcare: Medical care services inflation affects both CPI-W and Medicare premiums, creating a dual impact on retirees.

Key Dates for 2027 COLA